ISO/TS 31050:2023

TECHNICAL ISO/TS
SPECIFICATION 31050
First edition
2023-10
Risk management — Guidelines for
managing an emerging risk to enhance
resilience
Management du risque — Lignes directrices relatives à la gestion des
risques émergents afin d'améliorer la résilience
Reference number
© ISO 2023
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ii
Contents Page
Foreword .v
Introduction . vi
1 Scope . 1
2 Normative references . 1
3 Terms and definitions . 1
4 Emerging risks . 2
4.1 Nature of emerging risks . 2
4.2 Characterization of emerging risks . 3
4.2.1 General . 3
4.2.2 Knowledge aspects . 4
4.2.3 Measurement aspects . 5
4.2.4 Time dimension . 5
4.2.5 Volatility aspects . 6
4.3 Development of emerging risks . 6
4.4 Relationship between managing emerging risks and organizational resilience . 6
5 Principles . 7
5.1 General . 7
5.2 Integrated . 8
5.3 Structured and comprehensive . 8
5.4 Customized . 8
5.5 Inclusive . 8
5.6 Dynamic . 8
5.7 Best available information . 8
5.8 Human and cultural factors . 9
5.9 Continual improvement . 9
6 Process . . 9
6.1 Applying the ISO 31000 process to emerging risks . 9
6.2 Communication and consultation. 9
6.3 Scope, context and criteria . 10
6.3.1 Scope and context . 10
6.3.2 Criteria . 11
6.4 Risk assessment . 12
6.4.1 General .12
6.4.2 Identifying emerging risks .12
6.4.3 Analysing emerging risks . 13
6.4.4 Evaluating emerging risks . 14
6.5 Risk treatment .15
6.6 Monitoring and review .15
6.7 Recording and reporting . 16
7 Enhancing resilience by managing emerging risks.16
7.1 Capability development . 16
7.2 Emerging risks and resilience indicators . 18
8 Risk intelligence cycle and managing emerging risks .20
8.1 Overview . 20
8.2 Applying knowledge to decisions on emerging risks . 21
Annex A (informative) Examples of changes in context that can be sources of emerging
risks .22
Annex B (informative) Example of emerging risks description or recording template .23
Annex C (informative) Systemic risks .25
iii
Annex D (informative) Example factors that can influence managing emerging risks .26
Annex E (informative) Knowledge and risk intelligence cycle for managing emerging risks.28
Annex F (informative) Example of a completed resilience indicator template .32
Bibliography .34
iv
Foreword
ISO (the International Organization for Standardization) is a worldwide federation of national standards
bodies (ISO member bodies). The work of preparing International Standards is normally carried out
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This document was prepared by Technical Committee ISO/TC 262, Risk management, in collaboration
with Technical Committee ISO/TC 292, Security and resilience.
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v
Introduction
Emerging risks are characterized by their newness, insufficient data, and a lack of verifiable information
and knowledge needed for decision-making related to them. As these risks can develop with the
potential for large threats and opportunities, appropriate management of emerging risks should be
established as a part of an organization’s risk management. It should include changes in circumstances
or conditions related to multiple aspects of the organization’s external context and the implications for
its internal context.
Emerging risks can include, for example:
— risks arising from unrecognized changes in organizational contexts;
— risks created by innovation or social and technological development;
— risks related to new sources or previously unrecognized sources of risk;
— risks from new or modified processes, products or services.
Consequences of emerging risks can include, for example:
— exposure to unforeseen hazards and threats with uncertain outcomes;
— increased exposure to hazards and threats from known risk sources;
— lost or gained opportunities.
Managing the emerging risk should be knowledge-focused and dependent on the need to accumula
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